Supply chain visibility Environmental sustainability Reshoring and nearshoring Energy crisis Liquid feedstock
Monitoring sustainability and resilience trends
The growing importance of green supply chains
With environmental sustainability making it into the top 5 trends overall in terms of impact, there’s no denying the future of green supply chains. At the same time, sustainability trends are expected to reach their full impact in the not-too-near future. Environmental sustainability, the energy crisis and the liquid feedstock economy all decreased in timeliness compared to the previous assessment, pointing to a shift in priorities for supply chains.
The impact of the energy crisis, which was a major concern especially in Europe in 2022, also decreased significantly as experts look optimistically at the year ahead – despite fuel prices remaining high.
In terms of resilience, supply chain visibility was assessed as more timely than last year.
Supply chain visibility – in focus
Affected industries:
Especially industries in which transportation is time-critical
Affected supply chain segments:
Especially (international) air and sea transportation
Gathering information to reduce risks
Supply chain visibility (SCV) has two dimensions. First, it is a business’s ability to understand the structure of its own supply chain from end to end. Second, it is the ability to track different goods or products in transit, giving a clear view of inventory and all activity. Visibility enables shippers to improve customer service and cost control by managing inventory in motion, providing proactive status updates, limiting disruptions and mitigating risk.
Related developments
Facets of this trend
- Supply chain visibility platforms
- German Supply Chain Act
- Risk monitoring
Getting ahead of the trend
All businesses and supply chain segments can benefit from increased transparency. Given the high degree of uncertainty in the logistics market,
the visibility of supply chain structures and supply chain operations becomes a key factor in ensuring the robustness and resilience of supply chains.
Environmental sustainability – in focus
Affected industries:
All industries
Affected supply chain segments:
All segments, with an emphasis on CO2-emitting processes
On the path to greener logistics
Driven by customer demand and political steering effects, logistics players continue to implement environmentally friendly practices to decarbonize their supply chains. With process optimization as the biggest lever to reduce both costs and emissions, different solutions are being tested and implemented. These range from sustainable fuel to carbon offset solutions for facilities – all to reach the industry’s goal to become greener and more sustainable.
The timeliness of this trend varies by region and continent, along with the availability of and willingness to pay for and implement sustainable solutions.
Related developments
Increasing volumes, decreasing emissions
Although transportation volumes increase, many major manufacturers and LSPs report progress in reducing logistics emissions. To reach net-zero targets, the transportation industry still needs to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2030.
A tough year for combined transportation
Combined road-rail transportation is an important factor in making the transportation industry greener. Yet in 2022, the combined transportation industry in Europe registered a loss of 11.7% in terms of ton-kilometers, which put an end to the robust growth of the years before.
Facets of this trend
- Sustainable logistics optimization (internalized externalities)
- Decarbonization: zero-emission logistics/net-zero
- Circular economy
Getting ahead of the trend
Businesses should make use of incentives and regulations for green and sustainable supply chains.
Aim to find the right balance between securing stable energy sources for the long term while increasing environmental sustainability.
Reshoring and nearshoring – in focus
Affected industries:
Especially global manufacturing networks and pharmaceutical businesses
Affected supply chain segments:
Air, sea and road transportation
Between risk reduction and cost efficiency
Recent supply chain disruptions have caused a debate about reshoring and nearshoring as risk mitigation strategies. Reshoring is the practice of transferring a business operation that was moved overseas back to the country from which it was originally relocated. In the EU, nearshoring initiatives are common by making investments into Eastern European countries near the border, benefitting from a common legal and market framework. The most recent development of friend-shoring, e.g., relocating to a country with a good political relationship with the business’s home country, sometimes coincides with nearshoring.
Related developments
Facets of this trend
- Reshoring, nearshoring
- Regional diversification
- Multisourcing
Getting ahead of the trend
Recent developments show that industrial companies need to enhance their resilience and sustainability.
Reshoring and multisourcing can be effective measures to significantly increase both.
On the other hand, reshoring usually comes at a high price. Whether it is advisable to adopt these strategies strongly depends on the supply chain structures under consideration.
Energy crisis – in focus
Affected industries:
Especially industries relying on energy-intensive operations like automotive and chemicals in Europe
Affected supply chain segments:
All segments
Shortages improve but markets stay volatile
After the prominence of the energy and commodity shortage in past years, the development around this trend seems to have taken a positive turn. Although the semi-conductor shortage seems to be over, and the rapid transition phase to decouple from Russian energy supply might have succeeded, energy and fuel prices remain high.
The impact of this trend varies by region. While European countries feel negative effects of the crisis, other countries are less affected or even benefit from developments in Europe. Still, international entanglement of supply chains causes indirect effects of the shortage around the world.
In terms of timeliness, while energy prices in Europe are high, it will still take a few years until businesses react and adjust their strategies, for instance by outsourcing operations.
Related developments
Facets of this trend
- Energy (feedstock) shortage
- High price of energy and fuel
- C-parts shortage and semi-conductor shortage
Getting ahead of the trend
Although the energy and commodity shortages have improved, businesses should continue to observe the situation carefully.
Prices and availability are dependent on regulatory developments that are hard to predict.
Businesses’ strategies for sourcing and energy dependency should enable quick adaption to changes.
Liquid feedstock like LNG, H2, SAF – in focus
Affected industries:
Especially energy- or fuel-intensive industries
Affected supply chain segments:
Road, air, sea and pipeline transportation
Fueling the future of supply chain
Global markets depend on various liquid fuels that require extensive logistics operations. At the same time, synthetic liquid fuels such as SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) promise greater sustainability at stable costs when compared to petroleum-based ones. Once hydrogen starts playing a bigger role in the energy economy, liquid feedstock logistics will gain more attention. However, large investments – including a transition of the current infrastructure – are required to deliver such fuels.
Related developments
Facets of this trend
- 3D print materials
- LNG import and green fuel
- Transition to a hydrogen economy
Getting ahead of the trend
Determine the level of public investment in infrastructure in your operating region(s), as this affects the economic viability of your feedstock.
What propulsion technology makes most sense for your fleet, and what sustainability targets can you achieve in that area?
Authors
Holger Clasing
Vice President and Head of Strategy Practice
4flow consulting
Wendelin Gross
Head of
4flow research
Gero Holzheid
Supply Chain Scientist
4flow research