4flow trend monitor

Sustainability and resilience

Expert insights to ensure viability – while taking a step towards environmentally sustainable operations

Monitoring sustainability and resilience trends

The growing importance of green supply chains

With environmental sustainability making it into the top 5 trends overall in terms of impact, there’s no denying the future of green supply chains. At the same time, sustainability trends are expected to reach their full impact in the not-too-near future. Environmental sustainability, the energy crisis and the liquid feedstock economy all decreased in timeliness compared to the previous assessment, pointing to a shift in priorities for supply chains.

The impact of the energy crisis, which was a major concern especially in Europe in 2022, also decreased significantly as experts look optimistically at the year ahead – despite fuel prices remaining high.

In terms of resilience, supply chain visibility was assessed as more timely than last year.

Supply chain visibility – in focus

Affected industries:

Especially industries in which transportation is time-critical

Affected supply chain segments:

Especially (international) air and sea transportation

Gathering information to reduce risks

Supply chain visibility (SCV) has two dimensions. First, it is a business’s ability to understand the structure of its own supply chain from end to end. Second, it is the ability to track different goods or products in transit, giving a clear view of inventory and all activity. Visibility enables shippers to improve customer service and cost control by managing inventory in motion, providing proactive status updates, limiting disruptions and mitigating risk.

Related developments

Legislation across Europe

In 2024, tens of thousands of businesses will be obligated to achieve more structural supply chain visibility by the German Supply Chain Act and European CS3D (Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive).

Visibility reduces challenges

According to a survey McKinsey conducted in 2022, supply chain leaders who increased their end-to-end supply chain visibility were twice as likely to report having no challenges from supply chain disruptions compared to those with less visibility.

Facets of this trend

  • Supply chain visibility platforms
  • German Supply Chain Act
  • Risk monitoring

Getting ahead of the trend

All businesses and supply chain segments can benefit from increased transparency. Given the high degree of uncertainty in the logistics market,
the visibility of supply chain structures and supply chain operations becomes a key factor in ensuring the robustness and resilience of supply chains.

Environmental sustainability – in focus

Affected industries:

All industries

Affected supply chain segments:

All segments, with an emphasis on CO2-emitting processes

On the path to greener logistics

Driven by customer demand and political steering effects, logistics players continue to implement environmentally friendly practices to decarbonize their supply chains. With process optimization as the biggest lever to reduce both costs and emissions, different solutions are being tested and implemented. These range from sustainable fuel to carbon offset solutions for facilities – all to reach the industry’s goal to become greener and more sustainable.

The timeliness of this trend varies by region and continent, along with the availability of and willingness to pay for and implement sustainable solutions.

Related developments

Increasing volumes, decreasing emissions

Although transportation volumes increase, many major manufacturers and LSPs report progress in reducing logistics emissions. To reach net-zero targets, the transportation industry still needs to reduce its emissions by 20% by 2030.

A tough year for combined transportation

Combined road-rail transportation is an important factor in making the transportation industry greener. Yet in 2022, the combined transportation industry in Europe registered a loss of 11.7% in terms of ton-kilometers, which put an end to the robust growth of the years before.

Political pressure

Some political parties want to lessen pressure on decarbonization targets to prevent rising costs for citizens. The popularity of these parties is rising all over Europe.

Facets of this trend

  • Sustainable logistics optimization (internalized externalities)
  • Decarbonization: zero-emission logistics/net-zero
  • Circular economy

Getting ahead of the trend

Businesses should make use of incentives and regulations for green and sustainable supply chains.
Aim to find the right balance between securing stable energy sources for the long term while increasing environmental sustainability.

Reshoring and nearshoring – in focus

Affected industries:

Especially global manufacturing networks and pharmaceutical businesses

Affected supply chain segments:

Air, sea and road transportation

Between risk reduction and cost efficiency

Recent supply chain disruptions have caused a debate about reshoring and nearshoring as risk mitigation strategies. Reshoring is the practice of transferring a business operation that was moved overseas back to the country from which it was originally relocated. In the EU, nearshoring initiatives are common by making investments into Eastern European countries near the border, benefitting from a common legal and market framework. The most recent development of friend-shoring, e.g., relocating to a country with a good political relationship with the business’s home country, sometimes coincides with nearshoring.

Related developments

Growing interest among major businesses

Reshoring is being evaluated by more businesses – the mention of “reshoring” in financial reports of S&P 500 companies was up 128% in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the year before.

Returning to regional

In a survey by EY, 53% of industrial businesses say they have recently near- or re-shored operations.

Considering other solutions

Reshoring is not a common industry trend – while some businesses do it, others increase safety stock.

Facets of this trend

  • Reshoring, nearshoring
  • Regional diversification
  • Multisourcing

Getting ahead of the trend

Recent developments show that industrial companies need to enhance their resilience and sustainability.
Reshoring and multisourcing can be effective measures to significantly increase both.
On the other hand, reshoring usually comes at a high price. Whether it is advisable to adopt these strategies strongly depends on the supply chain structures under consideration.

Energy crisis – in focus

Affected industries:

Especially industries relying on energy-intensive operations like automotive and chemicals in Europe

Affected supply chain segments:

All segments

Shortages improve but markets stay volatile

After the prominence of the energy and commodity shortage in past years, the development around this trend seems to have taken a positive turn. Although the semi-conductor shortage seems to be over, and the rapid transition phase to decouple from Russian energy supply might have succeeded, energy and fuel prices remain high.

The impact of this trend varies by region. While European countries feel negative effects of the crisis, other countries are less affected or even benefit from developments in Europe. Still, international entanglement of supply chains causes indirect effects of the shortage around the world.

In terms of timeliness, while energy prices in Europe are high, it will still take a few years until businesses react and adjust their strategies, for instance by outsourcing operations.

Related developments

First a shortage, now oversupply

The semi-conductor shortage seems to be overcome, leading to an oversupply as result of a bullwhip effect.

Optimism for the winter

After a mild winter in 2022/23, forecasts regarding the energy shortage in Europe for the upcoming winter are optimistic.

Risk of inflation

Energy and oil prices are still sensitive to disruptions, which was highlighted by recent developments in the Middle East. Experts fear high inflation if the conflict expands its geographical scope.

Facets of this trend

  • Energy (feedstock) shortage
  • High price of energy and fuel
  • C-parts shortage and semi-conductor shortage

Getting ahead of the trend

Although the energy and commodity shortages have improved, businesses should continue to observe the situation carefully.
Prices and availability are dependent on regulatory developments that are hard to predict.
Businesses’ strategies for sourcing and energy dependency should enable quick adaption to changes.

Liquid feedstock like LNG, H2, SAF – in focus

Affected industries:

Especially energy- or fuel-intensive industries

Affected supply chain segments:

Road, air, sea and pipeline transportation

Fueling the future of supply chain

Global markets depend on various liquid fuels that require extensive logistics operations. At the same time, synthetic liquid fuels such as SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) promise greater sustainability at stable costs when compared to petroleum-based ones. Once hydrogen starts playing a bigger role in the energy economy, liquid feedstock logistics will gain more attention. However, large investments – including a transition of the current infrastructure – are required to deliver such fuels.

Related developments

New infrastructure

The war in Ukraine caused European countries to reconsider LNG (liquified natural gas) import infrastructure and build new import terminals.

Alternatives to diesel

The German government is paving the way to allow HVO100 as a sustainable alternative to diesel fuel for trucks. German retailer DM and DSV launched a pilot project for delivery to stores with hydrogen-powered trucks.

Making air transportation greener

The EU passed a regulation that requires airplanes to use increasing amounts of SAF from 2025 onwards.

Facets of this trend

  • 3D print materials
  • LNG import and green fuel
  • Transition to a hydrogen economy

Getting ahead of the trend

Determine the level of public investment in infrastructure in your operating region(s), as this affects the economic viability of your feedstock.
What propulsion technology makes most sense for your fleet, and what sustainability targets can you achieve in that area?


Authors

Holger Clasing

Vice President and Head of Strategy Practice
4flow consulting

 

Wendelin Gross

Head of
4flow research

 

Gero Holzheid

Supply Chain Scientist
4flow research

 

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